Two NATO-nation intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk's Starlink constellation with destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel, with the aim of reining in Western space superiority that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called 鈥渮one-effect鈥 weapon would seek to flood with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
Analysts who haven't seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for , including , that rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could steer Moscow away from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 buy it. Like, I really don鈥檛,鈥 said Victoria Samson, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization鈥檚 of anti-satellite systems. 鈥淚 would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that.鈥
But the commander of the Canadian military's Space Division, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner, said such Russian work cannot be ruled out in light of previous U.S. allegations that Russia also has been pursuing an indiscriminate .
鈥淚 can鈥檛 say I鈥檝e been briefed on that type of system. But it鈥檚 not implausible,鈥 he said. 鈥淚f the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they鈥檙e willing to develop that and willing to go to that end, well it wouldn鈥檛 strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development.鈥
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn't respond to messages from the AP seeking comment. Russia has for United Nations efforts to stop the and President has said Moscow has of deploying nuclear space weapons.
Weapon would have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on condition that the services involved were not identified and the news organization was not able to independently verify the findings' conclusions.
The didn't respond to e-mailed questions. The French military's Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings but said, 鈥淲e can inform you that Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space.鈥
Russia views Starlink in particular as a grave threat, the findings indicate. The thousands of low-orbiting satellites have been pivotal for Ukraine鈥檚 survival against Russia's full-scale invasion, now in its fourth year.
Starlink's high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles and by civilians and government officials where Russian strikes have affected communications.
's SpaceX, which operates Starlink, did not respond to a request for comment.
Russian officials repeatedly have warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine's military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it has fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, which is capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
Unlike a missile that to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon in development would target multiple Starlinks at once, with pellets possibly released by yet-to-be launched formations of small satellites, the intelligence findings say.
Canada's Horner said it is hard to see how clouds of pellets could be corralled to only strike Starlink and that debris from such an attack could get 鈥渙ut of control in a hurry.鈥
"You blow up a box full of BBs,鈥 he said. Doing that would 鈥渂lanket an entire orbital regime and take out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that鈥檚 in a similar regime. And I think that鈥檚 the part that is incredibly troubling.鈥
System is possibly just experimental
The findings seen by the AP didn't say when Russia might be capable of deploying such a system nor detail whether it has been tested or how far along research is believed to be.
The system is in active development and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence that the AP did not see. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the nonpublic findings.
Such Russian research could be simply experimental, Samson said.
鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 put it past some scientists ... to build out something like this because it鈥檚 an interesting thought-experiment and they think, you know, 鈥楳aybe at some point we can get our government to pay for it,'" she said.
Samson suggested the specter of a supposed new Russian threat may also be an effort to elicit an international response.
鈥淥ften times people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the U.S. side to build something like that or ... to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or using it for a more hawkish approach on Russia,鈥 she said.
鈥淚鈥檓 not saying that this is what鈥檚 happening with this," Samson added. 鈥淏ut it has been known to happen that people take these crazy arguments and use them.鈥
Tiny pellets could remain undetected
The intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small 鈥 just millimeters across 鈥 that they would evade detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it hard to pin blame for any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weaponry at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based security and policy think tank, said if 鈥渢he pellets are not trackable, that complicates things鈥 but 鈥減eople would figure it out.鈥
鈥淚f satellites start winking out with damage, I guess you could put two and two together," he said.
Exactly how much destruction tiny pellets could do isn't clear. In November, a suspected impact by a small piece of debris was sufficient to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was meant to bring back to the Earth.
鈥淢ost damage would probably be done to the solar panels because they鈥檙e probably the most fragile part鈥 of satellites, Swope said. 鈥淭hat鈥檇 be enough, though, to damage a satellite and probably bring it offline.鈥
鈥榃eapon of fear鈥 could threaten chaos
After such an attack, pellets and debris would over time fall back toward Earth, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on their way down, analysts say.
Starlink's orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China鈥檚 Tiangong space station and the operate at lower orbits, 鈥渟o both would face risks,鈥 according to Swope.
The space chaos that such a weapon could cause might enable Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually having to use it, Swope said.
鈥淚t definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence or something,鈥 he said.
Samson said the drawbacks of an indiscriminate pellet-weapon could steer Russia off such a path.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e invested a huge amount of time and money and human power into being, you know, a space power,鈥 she said.
Using such a weapon 鈥渨ould effectively cut off space for them as well,鈥 Samson said. 鈥滻 don't know that they would be willing to give up that much."
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.
