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The board said that while rising costs due to tariffs and spiking oil prices induced by the conflict in the Middle East did not affect the topline confidence reading, there was increasing pessimism in other measures of the survey, including expectations of higher inflation.

Respondents’ comments about oil, gas and the war spiked and consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations surged to levels last seen in August 2025 when anxiety over tariffs peaked.

U.S. gas prices jumped past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 on Tuesday as the war caused fuel prices to soar worldwide.

According to motor club AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $4.02 — up more than a dollar before the war began. The last time were collectively paying this much at the pump was nearly four years ago, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell 1.7 points to 70.9, remaining well below 80, a marker that can signal a recession ahead. It’s the 14th consecutive month that reading has come in under 80.

The index for consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation rose by 4.6 points to 123.3.

Government data from earlier in March showed that an inflation gauge closely monitored by the Federal Reserve moved 2.8% higher in January in the latest sign that prices were even before the Iran war caused .

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories — which the Fed pays closer attention to — core prices rose 3.1%, up from 3% in the prior month and the highest in nearly two years.

and also remain elevated.

Those higher prices and the prospect of even higher inflation due to the Iran war makes it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates any time soon.