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The has been up and down so far this year after a dismal 2025. And the Iran war, which began Feb. 28, has clouded the outlook for the economy and hiring.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that layoffs rose in March. But hiring improved: Employers added 5.55 million gross jobs, most since February 2024. More Americans also quit their jobs — a sign of confidence in their prospects.

Job openings have come down more or less steadily since peaking at a record 12.3 million in March 2022 as the U.S. economy bounded back from COVID-19 lockdowns. High interest rates, a response to an outburst of inflation in 2021-2022; uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies; and, potentially, the disruptive impact of have discouraged robust hiring.

Last year, employers added fewer than 10,000 jobs a month, weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002. So far in 2026, job creation has bounced around — strong in January (160,000 new jobs) and March (178,000) but weak in February when employers slashed 133,000 jobs.

The Labor Department issues its job report for April on Friday. According to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet, it is expected to show that companies, nonprofits and government agencies added a steady 57,000 net jobs last month and that the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%.

Partly because of Trump's , fewer people are competing for work. That means the economy doesn't need as many new jobs to keep the unemployment rate from rising. A year ago, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that the "break-even'' rate of monthly hiring was 153,000. In an update published in March, St. Louis Fed economist Alexander Bick calculated that it could be as low as 15,000 jobs a month.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary that Tuesday's JOLTS report showed a “steady labor market.'' But he cautioned that �this picture of the labor market will change as the economy adjusts to $100+ a barrel oil, higher inflation, possibly tighter monetary conditions and global recession starting in Asia,'' which is dependent on and natural gas from the Persian Gulf.