Virginia voters on Tuesday will decide whether to ratify an unusual mid-decade redrawing of U.S. House districts that could boost Democrats’ chances of flipping control of the closely divided chamber, as the state becomes the latest front in a national redistricting battle.
A proposed constitutional amendment backed by Democratic officials would bypass the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to allow use of approved by state lawmakers in this year's midterm elections.
The referendum tests Democrats' ability to push back against President Donald Trump, who started the gerrymandering competition between states after successfully to redraw congressional districts in their favor last year. Virginia would be the second state, after California last fall, to put the question to voters.
It also tests voters' willingness to accept districts gerrymandered for political advantage — coming just six years after Virginia voters approved an amendment meant to diminish such partisan gamesmanship by shifting redistricting away from the legislature.
Even if Democrats are successful Tuesday, the public vote may not be the final word. The state Supreme Court is considering whether the redistricting plan is illegal in a case that could make the referendum results meaningless.
Virginia Democrats are following California's lead
Congressional redistricting typically is done once a decade after each U.S. census. But Trump urged Texas Republicans to redistrict ahead of the November elections in hopes of winning several additional seats and maintaining the GOP's narrow House majority in the face of political headwinds that typically favor the party that is out of power .
The Texas gambit led to a nationwide. So far, Republicans believe they can win up to nine more House seats in newly redrawn districts in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.
Democrats think they can win up to five more seats in California, where a mid-decade redistricting effort last November, and one more seat under new court-imposed . Democrats hope to offset the rest of that gap in Virginia, where they in the state House and won back the governor’s office last year.
Leaders of both major parties see Tuesday’s vote as crucial to their chances to have a House majority in the fall. Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, rallied with opponents of the measure Monday night, calling the redistricting plan “dishonest†and “brazenly deceptive.†House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters at the Capitol earlier in the day that a vote to approve the redraw “will serve as a check and balance on this out-of-control Trump administration.â€
He said he expected the election to be close.
The back-and-forth battle over congressional districts is expected to continue in Florida, where the Republican-led legislature is scheduled to convene April 28 for a special session that could result in a more favorable map for Republicans.
A lobster-like district could aid Democratic efforts
In Virginia, Democrats currently hold six of the 11 U.S. House seats under districts that were in 2021 after a bipartisan commission failed to agree on a map based on the latest census data.
The new plan could help Democrats win as many as 10 seats. Five are anchored in Democratic-heavy northern Virginia, including one shaped like a lobster that stretches into Republican-leaning rural areas.
Revisions to four other districts across Richmond, southern Virginia and Hampton Roads dilute the voting power of conservative blocs in those areas. And a reshaped district in parts of western Virginia lumps together three Democratic-leaning college towns to offset other Republican voters.
The Virginia redistricting plan is "pushing back against what other states have done in trying to stack the deck for Donald Trump in those congressional elections,†Democratic said during an online rally last week.
Ads for the “yes to redistricting†campaign featuring former have flooded the airwaves.
Opponents have distributed campaign materials citing past statements from Obama and Spanberger criticizing gerrymandering, but those were before Trump pushed Republican states to redraw their congressional maps in advance of this year's midterms.
Democrats “were all against gerrymandering before they were for it,†Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeff Ryer said.
Virginia court weighs whether lawmakers acted illegally
Virginia lawmakers endorsed a constitutional amendment allowing their mid-decade redistricting last fall, then as part of a two-step process that requires an intervening election for an amendment to be placed on the ballot.
In February, they to take effect pending the outcome of the redistricting referendum. Republicans have filed multiple legal challenges against the effort.
A Tazewell County judge ruled that the for several reasons. Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley Jr. said lawmakers failed to follow their own rules for adding the redistricting amendment to a special session.
He ruled that their initial vote failed to occur before the public began casting ballots in last year’s general election and thus didn’t count toward the two-step process. He also ruled that the state failed to publish the amendment three months before that election, as required by law.
If the agrees with the lower court, the results from Tuesday's vote could be rendered moot.
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Associated Press writer Lisa Mascaro in Washington contributed to this report.
