WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley has seen the political ground shift beneath him this past year, the boundaries of his California district upended by the nation’s partisan redistricting war.
But Kiley has made clear he’s not going away quietly. Or to hear him put it: “I’m not going away at all.â€
It’s the kind of defiance that has defined Kiley’s recent tenure in Washington. Some days, he's blasting Democrats and continuing his longstanding antagonism toward California Gov. Gavin Newsom and political pursuits in his home state, including the effort to build high-speed rail. Other days, he's bucking President Donald Trump on and criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership.
The double-barreled approach to reelection comes as the former state legislator tries to navigate his way to a third term in the House after watching his current district split into six pieces, leaving him with few paths to remain in office. He plans to announce a decision on his reelection plans on Monday.
Kiley's predicament is an example of how the redistricting war that began in , at Trump's urging, and drew a swift counter response from Democrats in has left some incumbents scrambling to salvage their political careers.
Kiley has said on social media he's narrowed his reelection options to two. One would be to take on fellow Republican Tom McClintock in a primary and possibly again in the fall. California uses a system in which the top two vote-getters in a primary regardless of party move on to the general election. His other option would be to run in a Democratic-leaning district and hope he can prevail despite the midterm headwinds facing Republicans.
“He's in real jeopardy of not coming back to Congress,†Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said. “Having said that, I think he's got a better shot than most would under this circumstance. He's a shrewd politician. He works hard.â€
How he got here
After Texas redrew its maps to generate five more districts friendlier to Republicans, California responded in kind. Voters approved new congressional district boundaries that give Democrats a better shot at winning up to five additional seats.
Kiley is not the only California Republican facing a tougher road to reelection. Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim will face off in a new district. Rep. Darrell Issa is expected to seek a 13th term in his current district, but it now tilts toward Democrats. Rep. David Valadao's district in the Central Valley has become even more Democratic-leaning.
Kiley has been outspoken about their plight. He authored a bill to prohibit states from carrying out more than one congressional redistricting after each decennial census. But the bill has languished, with just one co-sponsor. He has taken to the floor to criticize Johnson for not doing more to head off a redistricting war that has spread to Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, among others.
“Why is the leader of this institution simply watching as the institution crumbles?†he said in one floor speech.
Johnson said that Kiley's criticism is “misinformed" and that he brought in some $13 million to fight California's redistricting effort at the ballot box.
“Last cycle, I practically lived in California,†Johnson said. “I spent so many days campaigning in California, I thought Gavin Newsom was going to send me a tax bill. I'll be out there again because California is equally important to us now as it always has been.â€
The road ahead
Kiley said on social media that he would be choosing between the reliably-Republican district that McClintock serves and an open Sacramento County-focused district where Democrat Kamala Harris would have won the 2024 presidential election by about 8 percentage points.
“Over the coming weeks leading up to the March 4 filing deadline, I will be talking with constituents and folks throughout the state about the best path forward, and I would love to hear from you,†he wrote. “... Thank you for all of the encouragement in working through a set of a challenges we never expected."
His willingness to butt heads with GOP leadership and Trump could appeal to the independent voters he will need to have success in the Democratic-leaning Sacramento district.
Kiley was one of six Republicans who earlier this month voted to rescind tariffs Trump imposed on Canada. Before that, he voted to . He also weighed in with a bill to temporarily extend health care subsidies in the Affordable Care Act marketplace, though he ultimately voted against the sought by Democrats.
“He's positioning himself to basically run as a Republican that is independent of the speaker and the leadership, and independent from the White House,†said Stutzman, the Republican strategist.
Stutzman added that some of Kiley's actions also stem from a genuine unhappiness with Republican leaders on the redistricting war.
“They started a fight and then left these guys bleeding on the battlefield," Stutzman said.
Stutzman said the Sacramento-area district is an interesting setup for Kiley because part of his political brand is being a Newsom antagonist, and Newsom hasn't fared as well there as he has overall in the state.
“He's going to put up a good fight in this seat — if that's what he does,†Stutzman said.
Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell said he doubts the seat is winnable for Republicans in an election likely to be a referendum on Trump.
“It is a more swingy seat than a seat in Santa Monica or San Francisco, but it's not a seat that I think a Republican wins, especially not in a blue wave election,†said Mitchell, a political data expert.
Republican versus Republican
Mitchell sees Kiley's best chance of returning to Congress as unseating McClintock, who has served nine terms in the House. And before that, 22 years as a California legislator. He may be the most conservative member of the California delegation.
McClintock said of a possible Kiley challenge: “Desperate people do desperate things, but it's a free country and he's free to run where he wishes.â€
The Club for Growth Political Action Committee, a powerhouse in GOP primaries that often puts its vast resources behind the most fiscally conservative Republican candidate, endorsed McClintock last week. Trump also gave McClintock his “Complete and Total Endorsement.â€
Such endorsements will be key for McClintock. He came into this year at a distinct financial disadvantage compared with Kiley. Federal Election Commission records show McClintock with less than $100,000 in cash on hand at the end of December; Kiley had more than $2 million.
Kiley's campaign put some of those resources to work earlier this month with more than $175,000 spent on a political ad that shows him as a foil to Newsom. “That's why President Trump said no one has fought Gavin Newsom harder than Kevin,†a narrator says.
Ad-Impact, which tracks political ad spending, said most of the funds were directed to the Fresno and Visalia media market. Mitchell says the lack of spending in Sacramento could be a sign of Kiley's thinking.
“I should expect to see him at things in this part of the district or Republicans all excited about Kiley in this part of the districts. It's like crickets," Mitchell said.
Kiley said the ads did not necessarily mean a decision had been made. He said he's talking to current constituents as well as those he might serve in the future, “seeing which is the best fit.â€
