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While existing programs offer some support, "they are not equipped to guide communities through large-scale economic and societal transformations," said the report published Tuesday, the first in a series of planned IRPP policy briefs and community profiles delving into the issue. 

The report highlights recommendations to better direct investments to communities that need it most and increase local-level input when charting the energy transition. 

Canada's effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help keep global warming in check has already started to reshape the economy. 

Disruption, the report notes, does not necessarily mean job losses. In fact, some communities could see job creation in the long term; disruption in those cases might involve workers shifting roles or retaining new skills in the renewable energy sector, for example. 

Meanwhile, a large influx of new workers – such as in Ontario communities tapped for new electric vehicle battery plants – could also be disruptive, particularly when it comes to housing shortages, the report says. 

Some communities were found to be susceptible because they relied on high-emitting facilities or had lots of people employed in a sector undergoing major market transformation. They were generally small, remote and less economically diverse than other areas, the report says.  

The report recommends Ottawa tailor its tax incentives and subsidies to drive investments to communities that need it most, an area where it says the government is falling short. Only about one in 10 projects announced under Ottawa's $18.5-billion Strategic Innovation Fund are in a susceptible community, the report says. 

"What we hear from the communities is that it's not sufficient. It's not enough to help ensure that they can maintain the level of employment and economic activity that they have right now," said Rachel Samson, a co-author of the report and vice president at IRPP.

Communities were defined by the project as census divisions, not municipalities. There were also 131 Indigenous communities within the census divisions identified as susceptible, the report noted.

Eight of the 13 most susceptible communities are in Alberta and Saskatchewan, many of them with deep ties to the oil and gas sector. 

The project includes detailed looks at Ingersoll, Ont., the site of one of the country's first electric-vehicle manufacturing plants, and Estevan, Sask., home to coal mines and a coal-powered generating station.

Samson said in Estevan, the targeted phaseout of coal by 2030 and the volatility of the oil and gas sector had generated lots of stress about the city's economic prospects. 

"What they're looking for is more control and agency over the planning and government investments that are happening," she said. 

But the community profile of Estevan also highlighted some positive signs. 

It says SaskPower, the provincial utility, is working in partnership with Ocean Man First Nation to build a 100-megawatt solar facility, the province’s largest to date, near Estevan. About an hour north, a consortium of First Nations has teamed up with Enbridge to build a wind project expected to produce enough energy to power 100,000 homes annually. 

The desire in Estevan for more local input reflects the larger issue of top-down policy approaches, the report suggests. 

In response, the report recommends the federal government should expand the mandate and resources for so-called community futures organizations. The federally supported non-profits are governed by local volunteer boards and are intended to offer community-driven business guidance and strategies. 

Yet, the report says federal contributions to those organizations has not increased since 2009 and the average office was facing an operational funding gap of $130,000 as of 2023. 

The report notes two recent pieces of federal legislation – the Sustainable Jobs Act and the Building a Green Prairie Economy Act –could lead to greater community involvement, but how they are implemented will be critical. 

The report's other recommendation is for the government to establish what it calls the Canadian Centre for Community Transformation. The centre could come up with market analysis, community-level data and case studies to support local decision-makers in the energy transition. 

This report by ¹ú²úÓÕ»ó¸£Àû was first published Jan. 14, 2025.